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Vibe Bench forecast tracker

Live market data

AI model predictions

Track release windows, benchmark thresholds, and which AI labs the market expects to lead. Every percentage comes from an exact active contract and refreshes throughout the day.

View release windows Browse every model

Source integrity

No invented odds

When an exact active market does not exist, we show no probability. Company forecasts stay separate from model-specific release forecasts.

Refreshed 0 seconds ago
9
Active events
91
Active outcomes
106
Models tracked
$338.5K
24h market volume

Market leadership

Which labs are expected to lead

Each outcome is its own Yes or No contract. Prices can move independently and may not add up to exactly 100 percent.

Best AI model lab at the end of 2026

A longer-range market forecast for which company will hold the strongest AI model at year end.

December 31, 2026
$283.1K traded $557.0K liquidity Open source market ↗
Anthropic +0.5 pts 67.5%
Google -1.5 pts 12.5%
OpenAI +0.5 pts 10.5%
xAI -0.1 pts 5.1%
Meta -0.1 pts 2.8%
ByteDance +1.3 pts 1.8%
Z.ai +0.1 pts 0.9%
Alibaba +0.3 pts 0.9%
Show 7 more outcomes
Mistral -0.3 pts 0.8%
DeepSeek -0.2 pts 0.7%
Amazon -0.3 pts 0.5%
Microsoft -0.2 pts 0.4%
Moonshot 0.4%
Baidu 0.4%
Meituan -0.1 pts 0.3%

Upcoming AI releases

Live model release windows

These are cumulative deadlines. A 70 percent Yes price by August means the market estimates a 70 percent chance of release on or before that checkpoint.

Benchmark thresholds

What the market expects models to score

These contracts forecast public leaderboard thresholds. They are not measured benchmark results and remain outside the Vibe Coding Index.

Complete model coverage

Every model in Vibe Bench

A direct market names the model family. A provider market only forecasts the lab and does not imply that every model from that company will lead.

106 models shown
Moonshot Kimi K3 Moonshot 67.3 Provider market Anthropic Claude Fable 5 Anthropic 67.0 Provider market OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI 66.5 Provider market OpenAI GPT-5.6 Terra OpenAI 62.1 Provider market Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic 62.0 Provider market xAI Grok 4.5 xAI 60.5 Provider market Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic 60.3 Provider market Anthropic Claude Sonnet 5 Anthropic 60.1 Provider market OpenAI GPT-5.5 OpenAI 59.9 Provider market Zhipu GLM-5.2 Zhipu 58.7 No exact market OpenAI GPT-5.6 Luna OpenAI 58.3 Provider market Muse Spark 1.1 Meta 56.2 No exact market OpenAI GPT-5.4 OpenAI 55.8 Provider market Google Gemini 3.5 Flash Google 54.7 Provider market Anthropic Claude Sonnet 4.6 Anthropic 53.9 Provider market Alibaba Qwen3.7 Max Alibaba 50.8 Provider market MiniMax MiniMax-M3 MiniMax 49.5 Provider market DeepSeek DeepSeek V4 Pro DeepSeek 49.3 Provider market Moonshot Kimi K2.6 Moonshot 49.1 Provider market Moonshot Kimi K2.7 Code Moonshot 47.1 Provider market Google Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview Google 46.9 Provider market Xiaomi MiMo-V2.5-Pro Xiaomi 46.9 No exact market Zhipu GLM-5.1 Zhipu 46.7 No exact market Nex-N2-Pro Nex Agi 45.6 No exact market Hy3 Tencent 45.4 No exact market DeepSeek DeepSeek V4 Flash DeepSeek 44.2 Provider market OpenAI GPT-5.4 mini OpenAI 43.9 Provider market Alibaba Qwen3.6 Plus Alibaba 43.9 Provider market OpenAI GPT-5.4 nano OpenAI 42.5 Provider market Xiaomi MiMo-V2.5 Xiaomi 42.0 No exact market Alibaba Qwen3.6 27B Alibaba 41.0 Provider market xAI Grok Build 0.1 0616 xAI 40.9 Provider market MiniMax MiniMax-M2.7 MiniMax 40.8 Provider market Alibaba Qwen3.7 Plus Alibaba 40.2 Provider market Anthropic Claude 4.5 Sonnet Anthropic 39.3 Provider market NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Ultra 550B A55B NVIDIA 39.3 No exact market Kwaipilot KAT Coder Pro V2 Kwaipilot 38.9 No exact market Zhipu GLM-4.7 Zhipu 38.8 No exact market Moonshot Kimi K2.5 Moonshot 38.1 Provider market OpenAI GPT-5.1 OpenAI 38.0 Provider market Alibaba Qwen3.5 397B A17B Alibaba 36.7 Provider market xAI Grok 4.3 xAI 36.4 Provider market OpenAI GPT-5 OpenAI 35.9 Provider market Alibaba Qwen3.5 122B A10B Alibaba 35.3 Provider market DeepSeek DeepSeek V3.2 DeepSeek 34.0 Provider market Zhipu GLM-4.6 Zhipu 33.3 No exact market Alibaba Qwen3.6 35B A3B Alibaba 32.7 Provider market Mistral Mistral Medium 3.5 Mistral 32.3 No exact market DeepSeek DeepSeek V3.1 Terminus DeepSeek 32.0 Provider market Inclusionai Ring-2.6-1T Inclusionai 32.0 No exact market Google Gemma 4 31B Google 31.9 Provider market Anthropic Claude 4.5 Haiku Anthropic 31.4 Provider market Stepfun Step 3.7 Flash Stepfun 31.4 No exact market Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Flash Xiaomi 30.5 No exact market Google Gemma 4 26B A4B Google 28.6 Provider market Anthropic Claude 4 Sonnet Anthropic 28.5 Provider market NVIDIA NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Super 120B A12B NVIDIA 25.1 No exact market Alibaba Qwen3 Coder Next Alibaba 23.6 Provider market OpenAI gpt-oss-120b OpenAI 23.1 Provider market Google Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Google 22.8 Provider market Google Gemini 2.5 Pro Google 22.0 Provider market Cohere North Mini Code Cohere 21.5 No exact market Mistral Devstral 2 Mistral 21.2 No exact market Mistral Devstral Small 2 Mistral 20.3 No exact market Cohere Command A+ Cohere 20.2 No exact market Alibaba Qwen3.5 9B Alibaba 19.8 Provider market OpenAI GPT-5 mini OpenAI 18.9 Provider market Mistral Mistral Small 4 Mistral 17.5 No exact market Mistral Mistral Small 3.1 Mistral 16.6 No exact market Mistral Mistral Large 3 Mistral 16.0 No exact market DeepSeek DeepSeek R1 DeepSeek 15.9 Provider market Alibaba Qwen3 235B A22B 2507 Alibaba 15.2 Provider market Amazon Nova 2.0 Lite Amazon 15.1 No exact market Inclusionai Ling 2.6 Flash Inclusionai 15.0 No exact market Mistral Mistral Medium 3.1 Mistral 14.3 No exact market DeepSeek DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek 13.8 Provider market Moonshot K2 Think V2 Moonshot 13.5 Provider market OpenAI gpt-oss-20b OpenAI 13.4 Provider market DeepSeek DeepSeek V3 0324 DeepSeek 13.1 Provider market OpenAI GPT-4.1 mini OpenAI 12.6 Provider market Alibaba Qwen3 Next 80B A3B Alibaba 11.9 Provider market OpenAI o3-mini OpenAI 11.1 Provider market Upstage Solar Pro 3 Upstage 11.1 No exact market Meta Llama Llama 4 Maverick Meta Llama 10.7 No exact market Anthropic Claude 3.5 Haiku Anthropic 10.3 Provider market NVIDIA NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Nano 30B A3B NVIDIA 10.0 No exact market Alibaba Qwen3 32B Alibaba 9.8 Provider market Mistral Ministral 3 14B Mistral 9.5 No exact market Alibaba Qwen3 30B A3B 2507 Alibaba 9.0 Provider market Alibaba Qwen3 14B Alibaba 8.9 Provider market Anthropic Claude 2.0 Anthropic Pending Provider market Anthropic Claude 2.1 Anthropic Pending Provider market Anthropic Claude 3 Opus Anthropic Pending Provider market Anthropic Claude 3.5 Sonnet Anthropic Pending Provider market Anthropic Claude 3.5 Sonnet (June '24) Anthropic Pending Provider market Anthropic Claude Mythos 5 Anthropic Pending Provider market Anthropic Claude Opus 5 Anthropic Pending Direct market DeepSeek DeepSeek R2 DeepSeek Pending Provider market Google Gemini 1.5 Pro Google Pending Provider market Google Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview Google Pending Provider market Google Gemini 3.5 Pro Google Pending Direct market Zhipu GLM-5.3 Zhipu Pending No exact market OpenAI GPT-4 OpenAI Pending Provider market OpenAI GPT-4 Turbo OpenAI Pending Provider market OpenAI GPT-4o OpenAI Pending Provider market OpenAI o1 OpenAI Pending Provider market

How this tracker works

Forecasts with a hard evidence boundary

Exact market matching

Every event uses a reviewed Polymarket slug. We do not search broadly and attach lookalike markets.

Five minute refresh

Public Gamma API responses are cached briefly and a six hour stale copy protects the page during a source outage.

Rankings stay sourced

Prediction prices never affect model scores, tentative placements, or official benchmark rankings.

Prediction markets reflect trader expectations and can be wrong. Contract rules determine settlement. Review each source market before using a price in a decision.

Polymarket API documentation ↗ Vibe Coding Index methodology → Public prediction API →